Opinion Polls Are Just That - Opinions

Can the opinion polls predicate which party will win seats?

The opinion polls published over the past 24 hours are worrying for the Conservative Party.

Depending on which poll you believe, the Tories could end up with around 150 seats, 109, or as low as 54. That’s a wide range.

Whether any of these numbers are accurate, is moot. Whatever the result, both numbers are a disaster for the party. Labour could end up with as many as five hundred seats - which will be interesting, as there is no room on the government benches for close to that number.

Taking a look at the numbers reveals that the Conservatives and Reform UK are equally placed at 19% each. Reform UK is up several points since Nigel Farage became the leader and announced he was standing for Parliament for an eighth time.

Two parties on 19% does not mean both will end up with the same number of seats. The percentage is the average across the country and in many ways, when it comes to seat counts, is irrelevant.

Numbers earlier this week, showed that Reform UK, despite being equal with the Tories is unlikely to win a single seat.

A different poll shows Reform UK winning up to five seats. Who can you believe?

The answer to that question is nobody. Different polls use different methods and the number of people polled can vary dramatically. These and other factors can skew the results evidenced by a range between 54 and 150 seats for the Conservatives.

Based purely on the shared 19% for the two parties, you would be forgiven for thinking that the official opposition following a Labour win, is a fight between the Conservative and Reform UK.

The better truth, if there is such a thing, is the battle for being the opposition is between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. Should the Tories end up at the lower end of the seat count and the LibDems at the high end or theirs, we could see an unusual colour seated opposite a new Labour government. That would produce a seismic change in British politics.

Less than two weeks are remaining of the campaign and numerous polls will be published before anyone places a cross on their ballot paper in polling stations. Postal voters will need to make their decision earlier.

Forthcoming polls will vary wildly on things like seat counts, but the more of them that are published, the closer the count will become. Maybe.

The only certainty is the truth behind the phrase, “lies, dam lies and statistics”.