Why My Partial Transit of the Panama Canal could be Dangerous

And yes, it is all down to a certain president-elect

LONDON, 23 December 2024

In early February 2025, I am due to make a partial transit of the Panama Canal.

However, this planned trip could be scuppered by president-elect Musk, err, sorry, Trump.

In an extraordinary statement, Trump said that he would “claim back” the Panama Canal from the independent country.

“The fees being charged by Panama are ridiculous, especially knowing the extraordinary generosity that has been bestowed to Panama by the US. It was not given for the benefit of others, but was a token of cooperation with us and Panama. If principles both moral and legal, of this management gesture of giving are not followed, then we will demand that the Panama Canal be returned to us, and without question” - Donald Trump

Principles? Morality? Legality? Trump knows little of the first two and plenty of the last.

The canal is a 51 mile connection between the Atlantic and the Pacific oceans and sees over 14,000 vessels pass through its locks each year.

Construction started in 1881, lead by the French, who pulled out due to lack of funds eight years later. The United Staes took over the project, with the canal opening in 1914. Between then and 1977, an area known as the Panama Canal Zone operated, until a treaty agreed to hand over full control to Panama. The canal was operated jointly by Panama and the United States until 1999, when full control passed to the country through which the waterway passes, Panama.

Today, quarter of a century later, president-elect Trump made his statement over the weekend.

The bully-elect wants to take control of an asset owned and operated by an independent country, because “the fees charged . . . are ridiculous”.

The Panamanian government has already pushed back on the Trump statement. It is their canal and their operation, with charges and everything else, down to them. The Chinese manage the ports at either end of the canal, Colon and Panama City, with the ownership and operation of the waterway controlled by the Panamanian government.

How is Trump going to take back something he thinks belong to the United States, when it is clearly part of an independent country? Negotiation? Bullying? Banning Panamanian imports? Invasion?

Negotiation

This is not going to happen, as there is nothing to negotiate on ownership or control. The canal belongs to and is operated by an independent country, Panama. Prices negotiated for passage are down to the canal operator and if a customer does not want to accept the terms, then there will no deal.

Bullying

Trump is a bully. He knows it. We know it. Panama knows it. The president-elect will shout and scream as he always does by social media and expect people to capitulate to his demands. Something he does frequently with his bully-boy tactics, is to withdraw money and business from his enemy. He could try that - banning US registered ships from using the canal and send them the long way via the Cape. Let us remember however, that many American owned and controlled ships, are registered in . . . yes, Panama.

Banning Panamanian Imports to the US

Try that at your peril. Trump loves to ban things and impose high tariffs on imports from countries he dislikes. In 2023, Panama exported $553.6m worth of goods and services to the US. In contract, businesses in the states, exported some $5.6bn to Panama. If Trump were to impose high tariffs on the $553.6m, the Panamanians could retaliate on the $5.6bn. Alternatively, they could restrict access to American owned and controlled ships, irrespective of their port of registration using the Panama Canal.

Invasion

The least likely option, but with an unhinged president in the Oval Office, not entirely off the table.

Other options would be for Trump to instruct shipowners to refuse to pay their bills. The soon-to-be Oval Office incumbent is well used to not paying bills.

Trump takes office on 20 January 2025, promising a flurry of executive orders in his first days. Will an order to take control of the Panama Canal from an independent country, be one of those orders?

If it is, my planned partial transit of the canal, from the Colon Caribbean end due in a few weeks time, could be in danger.