Will Nigel Farage Upset the Political Landscape?
Love him or hate him, Farage is making all the headlines. Again.
Reading some parts of the mainstream media today, 18 June 2024, you would be forgiven for thinking there is only one important person in this general election.
Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK seems to be everywhere. Not bad for a person who has failed to gain a Parliamentary seat in seven attempts. His eighth and perhaps final attempt is underway in the seaside constituency of Clacton-on-Sea.
Whether Farage’s personal or party politics meet your expectations, they are certainly upsetting the apple cart in the (non) smoke-filled planning rooms of the major parties.
The Conservatives are trying to ignore that he exists, other than trotting out the standard mantra that a vote for Reform UK will mean a Labour government. The Labour Party is concerned that Reform UK will take votes away from them in some marginals, preventing them from a win.
Whatever the truth, if you can find truth in politics at all, is that nobody knows. Least of all Nigel Farage.
Everyone knows the name Nigel Farage, but can you name more than one other member of his party? There are around 600 of them standing in constituencies across the nations.
Farage became very unpopular with many during his years as leader of UKIP with his views on Brexit polarising many. So much so, that in 2016 and 2020, not one single baby born in the UK bore the name Nigel. Your writer here is a Nigel and I feel quite sad about that.
Reform UK launched its contract with the British people this week. Not a manifesto, as Farage sees those as a series of promises waiting to be broken.
When people hear the word manifesto, they hear the word “lie”
~Nigel Farage, June 2024~
Very few politicians seem to be challenging some of his “contract” offerings. Looking through the details, there is £140bn-worth of extra spending contracted with the electorate, most of which is very vaguely funded.
Where are the challenges to Reform UK’s spending plans? Starmer and Sunak seem to be trying to ignore them, pretending they don’t exist. Ed Davey is more interested in throwing frisbees or tackling obstacle courses. Is this the right way to manage Reform UK’s spending intentions?
With the first past the post system in the UK, it is not expected that Reform UK will pick up many seats. If any. Despite that, this week, for the first time, one poll announced that the Conservatives were trailing Reform UK by 1%. That is of course, within the margin of error, but quite a feat for a party with no MPs and the prospect of none to come by 5 July.
The Conservatives are running scared of Reform UK and Farage. They prefer to ignore the party, rather than face it head-on. That decision could be their downfall.
Reform UK offers a contract to voters. However, let’s remember, it takes two to sign a contract for anything to happen.
That said, Nigel Farage could continue to upset the political landscape, from the comfort of a seat outside the Palace of Westminster, if he fails in Clacton-on-Sea.
Watch this space.